Brownbag Seminar: Antonio Nicolò

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Title: It can’t happen here: Democratic Backsliding and the Complacency Trap Authors: Edoardo Grillo and Antonio Nicolò Abstract: We study how institutions and citizens interact to restrain the executive in a model of democratic backsliding. We show that this interaction can generate a complacency trap. When democratic institutions appear effective and backsliding attempts remain absent, citizens become increasingly confident that such institutions can restrain the executive and thus rationally reduce their own costly engagement in democratic defence. Over time, prolonged stability can therefore erode vertical restraining and leave democracy more vulnerable to future backsliding. Political heterogeneity and the presence of multiple groups acting as vertical restrainers can further distort the composition of democratic defence and increase the risk of backsliding. Accurate information about institutional restraining capacity and electoral contestability can mitigate the inefficiencies associated with vertical restraining and reduce the risk of backsliding.